Friday, 1 January 2010

Is a Labour-Tory coalition unthinkable? Of course it is you fool

Martin Kettle seems to have lost it, as today in Comment is Free he decides that - contrary to all previous thinking - a Labour-Tory coalition is possible in the next general election. Where to start?

One significant option seems perversely unexplored – the big one: a deal between the two largest parties. That's right, between the Conservatives and Labour. Merely to state this possibility is doubtless to invite derision, and worse. For many on both sides a Conservative-Labour deal is in every respect the politically unthinkable.

It's unthinkable because it will never happen, and vice-versa. Can you imagine the reaction of the grass-roots of either party? Despite the fact that they have both moved closer to the centre in recent years, most Labour voters/members/politicians despise the other party.

It is nevertheless worth asking and answering, calmly, one simple question: Why not? The question deserves to be taken seriously for three main reasons. The first is that British elections are becoming increasingly fragmented. Votes and seats are shared between more parties than before. No large party can today count on automatic 40%-plus support as both Labour and the Tories once did. Inter-party deals have become common in the devolved authorities and local government. The trend would become more pronounced under a reformed Westminster electoral system.
The second reason is that some of the ancient differences between the main parties have blurred. This is sometimes misrepresented as "the parties becoming all the same", which is untrue. Nevertheless, some of the extremes of the past have been abandoned and some of the differences of today are more nuanced and pragmatic. Like football fans, British political parties retain a tribal culture, but the parties, like the football clubs, have learned they must adapt or perish.
The third reason is that, on occasion, needs must. There are practical arguments why, in some circumstances, an arrangement between the biggest parties might be the most viable option. A government of this kind might also do a good job, and might even be popular, too. Opinion polls certainly suggest as much.
The question also deserves to dismissed becuse of three main reasons...

1) Labour hate the Tories
2)Tories hate Labour
3) Despite at the top being closer than ever, at grass-roots level they are ideologically as far apart as ever

The idea is just crazy, both parties are closer to the Lib Dems ideologically so they are the perfect coalition partners.

I'd like to state categorically that this will not happen, if it does, I'll eat my face.

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